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Episode 1116: Sleep on It
Date September 28, 2017 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about how one’s incentives alter one’s perception of a season, then answer listener emails about FanGraphs’ World Series odds, the mid-1990s Braves pitching staffs, the annual suggestion that a team start a reliever in the wild card game, a comeback for Tony La Russa’s pitching platoon system, Andrew McCutchen’s belated first grand slam, the shift and ground ball success, the value of better sleep, the significance of the absence of managerial firings in 2017, the overlooked career of hefty triples machine Dave Orr, a hitter equivalent of Game Score, and more. Topics * Fangraphs' World Series odds * Top pitching staffs by WAR * Pitching strategy for wild-card games * Pitching platoon system * Value of quality sleep to team wins * At-bats without a grand slam * Impact of shifting on ground ball BABIP * In-season managerial firings * Dave Orr and heavy players hitting triples * Hitter equivalent of game score Intro Solid Gold, "Armoured Cars" Outro Whitney, "Dave's Song" Banter * Episode 1115 follow-up: A listener (Riley) works for a bank that coordinates armored car cash pickups from many MLB ballparks. Many of Riley's coworkers view a good baseball season as one that has few postponements and a predictable postseason picture. Email Questions * Ben: "What's up with FanGraphs' World Series odds? 63.8% of the weight falls in the American League, that is the system thinks that the NL is just over half as likely to win the series as the AL. How could these numbers be reasonable?" * Phillip: "With the 2017 Indians passing the '96 Braves in combined pitching WAR, I became curious about 1994 and 1995 for Atlanta's pitching staff. Both of these seasons were shortened. Had those seasons not been shortened was it likely that the 94-95 Braves would have more WAR than the '96 Braves?" * Kevin: "Brian Kenney advocates for using Chad Green in the first few innings of the wild card game, the idea being that the most runs are given up in the first innings. Would love to hear your thoughts on this." * Zachary: "Over the last several years I have become gradually more obsessed with the dates July 19th-24th, 1993. As I'm sure you guys are familiar with over these six games manager Tony La Russa decided to flip the game of baseball on its head. Instead of sticking with his traditional five man rotation he opted to divide his pitching staff into three platoons of three pitchers each with a four person bullpen. I wish that this experiment had been given more time.Could we see a team implement a platoon system in the future?" * Daniel: "What if teams ensured that every player received 8 hours of quality sleep by any means necessary? How many wins would this be worth to a team?" * Joe: "Why do you think that BABIP and on grounders is higher now even though teams seem to be going to greater lengths (shifting) to make it lower? What is your take?" * Jamal: "Not a single MLB managers has been fired since the season began. This has to be the first regular season in a while that a manager has not been fired mid-season. Is this just a coincidence or is this a sign of new thinking from front offices?" * Matt: "I found the career of a Mr. Dave Orr who played from 1883-1890. Even though he was listed at 5' 11" and 250 pounds he managed to lead the league in triples two times. Do you know if anyone heavier has ever led the league in triples?" * Nicholas: "Quarterbacks have a passer rating and pitchers have a game score. Is there an equivalent measure for batters? What is the actual value of a hitter's game performance?" Stat Segment * Inspired by a listener email Jeff uses the Play Index to learn more about players who have the highest number of career home run totals without a grand slam. * Andrew McCutchen recently hit his first career grand slam after over 200 career home runs. * Ozzie Smith batted 205 times with the bases loaded and never hit a grand slam. Notes * Ben's email alerted Jeff to the fact that there was a bug in the FanGraphs' World Series odds. * There are already several teams in MLB paying attention to player sleep patterns and working to improve the quality of sleep they get. * This season 2.2% of all home runs have been grand slams. * This is just the 11th season all-time in which there have been no in-season managerial changes. It is just the third time to happen since WWII. * For players above 250 pounds Dave Orr has the top five seasons for most triples. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1116: Sleep on It Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes